Comparing relative levels of Aussies in Europe using ELO

[Bunch_of_hacks]

So on the old forum might remember I compared the ELO ranking of the club's for each aussie player in Europe. ELO is a points system that the chess players use to determine ranking and is a statitistical system that factors in a clubs entire result history, more weighting is given to recent games, less weighting is given to distant games.

So at time of writing this is how our players clubs compare..

Ryan 1677
Volpato 1628
Souttar 1621
Irvine, Metcalfe 1583
Burgess, Luongo 1582
Circati 1568
Mcgree, Glover 1530
Genreau 1489
D'Agostino, Stensness1487
Toure's, Izzo 1475
Bennie 1475
Kalik 1462
Mabil 1459
Bos 1458
Oneill 1453
Yengi, Farrell, Matthews, Waddington 1444
Hrustic 1438
Robertson 1434
Elder 1419
Niewenhoff, Devlin 1409
Boyle, Miller, Triantis, Iredale 1403
Balard 1370
Karacic 1358
Irankunda 1336
Stam 1308
Strain 1295
Nisbet 1290
Italian 1263
Degenek 1248


So picking an 11 from that based on highest ratings ..

Ryan
Circati Souttar Burgess
Metcalfe Luongo Irvine. Bos
Mcgree Volpato
D'Agostino

 

[grazorblade]

So on the old forum might remember I compared the ELO ranking of the club's for each aussie player in Europe. ELO is a points system that the chess players use to determine ranking and is a statitistical system that factors in a clubs entire result history, more weighting is given to recent games, less weighting is given to distant games.

So at time of writing this is how our players clubs compare..

Ryan 1677
Volpato 1628
Souttar 1621
Irvine, Metcalfe 1583
Burgess, Luongo 1582
Circati 1568
Mcgree, Glover 1530
Genreau 1489
D'Agostino, Stensness1487
Toure's, Izzo 1475
Bennie 1475
Kalik 1462
Mabil 1459
Bos 1458
Oneill 1453
Yengi, Farrell, Matthews, Waddington 1444
Hrustic 1438
Robertson 1434
Elder 1419
Niewenhoff, Devlin 1409
Boyle, Miller, Triantis, Iredale 1403
Balard 1370
Karacic 1358
Irankunda 1336
Stam 1308
Strain 1295
Nisbet 1290
Italian 1263
Degenek 1248


So picking an 11 from that based on highest ratings ..

Ryan
Circati Souttar Burgess
Metcalfe Luongo Irvine. Bos
Mcgree Volpato
D'Agostino

should be a penalty for game time mind you
Maybe something like first choice =100% of elo score, regular minutes = 90%, squadie = 80% or something
Surprised viking's score has really jumped recently!

 

[Bunch_of_hacks]

should be a penalty for game time mind you
Maybe something like first choice =100% of elo score, regular minutes = 90%, squadie = 80% or something
Surprised viking's score has really jumped recently!

The Norwegian league has ranked highly for a few seasons now. It's teams have been competitive in Europe for awhile. Norwegian football strongest it's been since the 90s. Viking are fourth best rating in Norway. The Danish league also ranking highly the last few yrs. Looking at these ratings Toure and Daggers should be getting more of a look in

 

[grazorblade]

The Norwegian league has ranked highly for a few seasons now. It's teams have been competitive in Europe for awhile. Norwegian football strongest it's been since the 90s. Viking are fourth best rating in Norway. The Danish league also ranking highly the last few yrs. Looking at these ratings Toure and Daggers should be getting more of a look in

interesting when I've watch the danish league I've felt it was a step up from the a league but haven't felt that watching viking, at least not as much

 

[Decentric]

Excellent thread, BOH.

Will revisit it after compiling all Socceroo stats for the last 2 WCQs.

Thanks for doing the work.

 

[Mr Cleansheets]

In all seriousness, I don't think this ranking system works at all.

Just to make sure I'm understanding it correctly ... you're ranking players on the basis of the team they play for and how that team is ranked in Europe?

Messi is currently playing for Miami - he wouldn't get near Argentina selection if the ELO system was used. Pele and Beckenbauer once played for NY Cosmos.

 

[WhatAmIWatching]

In all seriousness, I don't think this ranking system works at all.

Just to make sure I'm understanding it correctly ... you're ranking players on the basis of the team they play for and how that team is ranked in Europe?

Messi is currently playing for Miami - he wouldn't get near Argentina selection if the ELO system was used. Pele and Beckenbauer once played for NY Cosmos.

It works on a line of best fit. Does this mean that it works for every player? No. You mention Messi & Beckenbauer but they are way, way , way above average, hence the line of best fit would not work. When Ronaldo played at the MCG, Melbourne City had Warren Joyce as coach who insisted in forwards joining the defensive press. Ronaldo would never get a game under WJ's coaching. Zlatan did not work out under Guardiola either; does this make Zlatan a crap footballer?
So for our purposes this works as most of the Roos' players are nowhere near Messi, Ronaldo or Zlatan levels.

 

[Mr Cleansheets]

But there are massive anomalies in this system.

You're seriously suggesting Bennie, Kalik, D'Agostino and Mabil are better than Triantis, Balard, Irankunda and Nisbet?

 

[Cunningstunt]

It's just an extra tool for comparing different leagues. It's useful when used in context with other information and considerations.

It's like any modelling of the real world. You can't capture all of the relevant information and create a perfect model. There will always be the exceptions you point out because if this. But it will still provide a reasonable indication of the strength of the clubs, as long as that information is paired with additional context.