Do results matter at youth tournaments - some data analysis

[grazorblade]

I was curious about the conversation about whether results mattered at youth tournaments and whether we could pick up some hints in the data. I looked at Australia's history at youth tournaments as well as them combined with Japan. To smooth the data I gave a point system for how well we did each year as follows




I then looked at two variables. First I looked at the number of players from a squad that go on to have at least one 25+game season in the top 20 leagues in Europe (sorry romania and bulgaria). I found that going up one rank in the above table meant on average around 1 extra player cracking it in Europe.

Second, I looked at the national teams ELO 6 years on from a youth world cup compared to their ranking. To smooth the data I took a 3 year rolling average of our youth world cup results and a 1 year rolling average of our ELO. I found that going up in ranking by 1 in the above table corresponds to boosting the national team's elo by about 25, 6 years down the track. This result remained the same whether I looked at just our data or our data combined with Japans

Australia is currently ranked 43rd on elo. If we regularly won at least one knockout game per youth world cup our ranking would be in the top 20 around switzerland and greece. Remarkably we woud still be behind Japan.

So youth results aren't everything, but they do seem to be one piece of the puzzle

 

[Decentric]

One thing that you often subscribe to success is playing in the UEFA Big Five.

I'd contend that playing in one of the top clubs in Portugal -Porto, Sporting Lisbon, Benfica; Netherlands - Ajax, PSV, Feyenoorde; possibly Switzerland - FC Zurich, Grasshoppers, Young Boys Berne; and Belgium - Anderlecht, Standard Liege; formerly Ukraine - Shahktar Donesk, Dynamo Kiev; before the war, is a higher level than mid ranked and lower ranked teams in the Big Five. Those Big Five clubs rarely play intra-continental football in UEFA.

They tend not have tournament experience in the Champ League and Europa League.

In the past I've written off results in underage tournaments - probably being influenced by coaches from European powerhouse perspectives on Aus football. From being a minnow, with a tiny portion of sports media presence in Aus, it may be a more significant achievement/phenomenon to qualify and have better results in underage tournaments.

 

[grazorblade]

One thing that you often subscribe to success is playing in the UEFA Big Five.

I'd contend that playing in one of the top clubs in Portugal -Porto, Sporting Lisbon, Benfica; Netherlands - Ajax, PSV, Feyenoorde; possibly Switzerland - FC Zurich, Grasshoppers, Young Boys Berne; and Belgium - Anderlecht, Standard Liege; formerly Ukraine - Shahktar Donesk, Dynamo Kiev; before the war, is a higher level than mid ranked and lower ranked teams in the Big Five. Those Big Five clubs rarely play intra-continental football in UEFA.

They tend not have tournament experience in the Champ League and Europa League.

In the past I've written off results in underage tournaments - probably being influenced by coaches from European powerhouse perspectives on Aus football. From being a minnow, with a tiny portion of sports media presence in Aus, it may be a more significant achievement/phenomenon to qualify and have better results in underage tournaments.

in this case my standard of success is much lower - 25 games in a single season for any club in the top 20 leagues in europe.

I agree that playing for feyenoord is just as exciting as a mid table big 5. I tend to use big 5 as a short hand since I'm a bit self conscious about how technical, wordy and statty some of my posts are haha

I suspect the power house perspective is shaped by the fact that psv and feyenord u20s are regularly playing bayern u20s and the like every year. So who cares if the dutch u20s have a bad year. Also playing club football in the eredivisie is probably also more important than playing for the national u20s. There are so many opportunities in europe that international youth tournaments are a tiny part of the big picture (honestly, some fans are outright hostile to international football in europe)

 

[grazorblade]

Another interesting point

if I select only from teams that qualified for the u17 or u20 world cup and ignore anyone that didn't, I basically get the socceroos squad from the last decade (I picked either from the afc squad that qualified or the world cup squad. Only difference was davidson and leckie played only the qualifiers)

——————————Izzo———————


—Degenek--Sainsbury-Kye Rowles-davidson-


———————Irvine—Holland——————————


—————————Mooy————————————


-leckie—————Taggart---——Oar———————

The teams that qualified disproportionately make up future socceroos squads despite us only qualifying 3 times for the u20s in the a league era and a couple of times for the u17s. I've also left out plenty of socceroos like mcgowan, amini and maclaren. The only notable players I can find that didn't play in a world cup qualifying team are duke, rogic and juric

We need to make the quarters 3 tournaments in a row before it will look like a new golden generation. I suspect we climb the ladder slowly - a solitary win will be a big achievement as would back to back qualification. In fact we have not won a game in the last 4 u20 world cups we qualified for to give an idea of the magnitude of the task.

So not popping the champaign yet..

 

[riquelmes_laces]

This whole narrative was hyperbolic on purpose, because the issue (supposedly) was that we prioritised results over technical development at youth level.

What, in my opinion, that did was throw the baby out with the bath water.

Yes results DO matter at youth level, for us. It may be less of an issue for more traditional football powerhouses, but we don't have that much of an opportunity to build a professional and winning mentality with our youth teams.

 

[LFC]

Another interesting point

if I select only from teams that qualified for the u17 or u20 world cup and ignore anyone that didn't, I basically get the socceroos squad from the last decade (I picked either from the afc squad that qualified or the world cup squad. Only difference was davidson and leckie played only the qualifiers)

——————————Izzo———————


—Degenek--Sainsbury-Kye Rowles-davidson-


———————Irvine—Holland——————————


—————————Mooy————————————


-leckie—————Taggart---——Oar———————

The teams that qualified disproportionately make up future socceroos squads despite us only qualifying 3 times for the u20s in the a league era and a couple of times for the u17s. I've also left out plenty of socceroos like mcgowan, amini and maclaren. The only notable players I can find that didn't play in a world cup qualifying team are duke, rogic and juric

We need to make the quarters 3 tournaments in a row before it will look like a new golden generation. I suspect we climb the ladder slowly - a solitary win will be a big achievement as would back to back qualification. In fact we have not won a game in the last 4 u20 world cups we qualified for to give an idea of the magnitude of the task.

So not popping the champaign yet..

Naturally results count to a degree.....
Dont HAVE to win next 3 tournaments for eg but at least go deep into them from Qrtr's on at least next couple of years.
That will show consistancy and building up the core makings of a good competitive squad mixed with youth and Snrs.
Don't have to be Jnr/Youth world beaters but as they mature (hopefully get into good leagues in the meantime) the day may come when it all clicks once selected for Snr NT and they progress to better things.

Forget the champayne for some time - leave it chilled we're coming up from behind in the meantime th eothers keep going that bit more forward.
Snakes and ladders.

 

[Quicky]

Naturally results count to a degree.....
Dont HAVE to win next 3 tournaments for eg but at least go deep into them from Qrtr's on at least next couple of years.
That will show consistancy and building up the core makings of a good competitive squad mixed with youth and Snrs.
Don't have to be Jnr/Youth world beaters but as they mature (hopefully get into good leagues in the meantime) the day may come when it all clicks once selected for Snr NT and they progress to better things.

Forget the champayne for some time - leave it chilled we're coming up from behind in the meantime th eothers keep going that bit more forward.
Snakes and ladders.

I think it was a positive step forward for us. There's been a view we're falling behind, and I do think some nations are progressing, but I don't think we're without our own progress.

 

[LFC]

I thought my post was balanced and objective plain and simple.
We HAVE fallen behind for yonks and YL/U23 below age group ordinary results for 10++yrs, we did WIN this tournament great, I don't count popping any champaynefiguritive speaking till consistancy rules years ahead and runs on the board.
We HAVE improved if you judge by 1 fanstastic result the rest is in the horizon yet to be written.
Ofcourse many others have progressed we've gone over it countless times and we've put 1 step forward.
Great stuff long way to go yet.

 

[Barca4life]

I dont think we have to win these tournaments if anything its a bonus if we do, but the most important thing is international exposure especially at world cups which our youth teams haven't much exposure from.

I also get that scouting has become alot more advanced especially with data analytics but its not like the world's best scouts have all eyes on Australian football whether its a-league or NPL, so qualifying for these youth world cups along with the olympics is the best opportunity for Australia to showcase what they can do on the world stage.

 

[grazorblade]

This whole narrative was hyperbolic on purpose, because the issue (supposedly) was that we prioritised results over technical development at youth level.

What, in my opinion, that did was throw the baby out with the bath water.

Yes results DO matter at youth level, for us. It may be less of an issue for more traditional football powerhouses, but we don't have that much of an opportunity to build a professional and winning mentality with our youth teams.

Yep agree with the for us

results don't matter for us in cricket because we are a powerhouse. In Europe if you fail at one u20 tournament you have the u20 champions league every year or you could crack it in one of the top leagues in the world. There are so many opportunities for youth over there. In our case we have to have our players match ready at a younger age because they usually have to make two jumps in their career to reach the top

 

[grazorblade]

Naturally results count to a degree.....
Dont HAVE to win next 3 tournaments for eg but at least go deep into them from Qrtr's on at least next couple of years.
That will show consistancy and building up the core makings of a good competitive squad mixed with youth and Snrs.
Don't have to be Jnr/Youth world beaters but as they mature (hopefully get into good leagues in the meantime) the day may come when it all clicks once selected for Snr NT and they progress to better things.

Forget the champayne for some time - leave it chilled we're coming up from behind in the meantime th eothers keep going that bit more forward.
Snakes and ladders.

yeah we have to climb the ladder again after slipping so far down

 

[grazorblade]

I dont think we have to win these tournaments if anything its a bonus if we do, but the most important thing is international exposure especially at world cups which our youth teams haven't much exposure from.

I also get that scouting has become alot more advanced especially with data analytics but its not like the world's best scouts have all eyes on Australian football whether its a-league or NPL, so qualifying for these youth world cups along with the olympics is the best opportunity for Australia to showcase what they can do on the world stage.

yeah if you think about what scouting is you watch one player, maybe 5 matches probably watching the games multiple times. A full time scout can really only properly assess a couple of players a week. I suspect most a league players haven't been properly scouted at all even if they are good enough

if we make the knockouts that is 4 games rather than three that a huge number of scouts will watch. If we win a knockout that is 5 games and a proper sample size to get a look at players

 

[Decentric]

I've changed my views on the importance of qualifying in underage tournaments apart from the U 23s, which I've recognised.

My opinion was very much based on what Han Berger was telling us at FFA National Conferences 12 years ago. That in Europe little importance is ascribed to underage success at tournaments.

I've been persuaded by others on G and G, this is very much a first world, football powerhouse's view.

Conversely, that in Aus, we desperately need underage qualification to raise the profile of Aus football and have scouts scouting Aussies for overseas leagues.

 

[ashtongate]

It was exactly the same 30-35 years ago, when the Young Socceroos were the flagship of Australian soccer (as the senior Socceroos were "failures".)
SBS had direct coverage of every Young Socceroos game on TV, qualifiers and finals.
Whilst Eddie Thomson facilitated the moves of Paul Okon and others to European clubs.

 

[Muz]

Yes

 

[Decentric]

I dont think we have to win these tournaments if anything its a bonus if we do, but the most important thing is international exposure especially at world cups which our youth teams haven't much exposure from.

I also get that scouting has become alot more advanced especially with data analytics but its not like the world's best scouts have all eyes on Australian football whether its a-league or NPL, so qualifying for these youth world cups along with the olympics is the best opportunity for Australia to showcase what they can do on the world stage.

Good post, B4L.