World Cup Qualification Thread for 2026 - Socceroos/Asia

[Kitwally]

I think only obligated to show home games on free to air?

 

[Muz]

I believe it's the anti-siphoning rules which dictate what must be made available to FTA and what doesn't have to be,

Actual world cups, for example, would fall under that. Anti-siphoning isn't relevant for WCQs I believe.

As well as a host of other stuff. Olympic qualifiers, under 17s etc. Channel 10 show them because they're not with a pay TV service.

 

[Muz]

I think only obligated to show home games on free to air?

I think it's something like that. But also I don't think they have a choice if the host broadcaster has deals set up elsewhere or with other providers.

 

[Kitwally]

I was using hyperbole with reference to the EPL remark. Im calling you a fan boy because even when he is mediocre, he is seen by you as being a great player. You're the one saying the stats justified Teague being there, but you didn't give us any stats.

If you think a failure from Portugal liga 2 can wipe the boots of a player he's never beaten, that has won the JWM aswell as multiple trophies for his club, that's up to you. Teague has done nothing except play under Popa. For that reason and only that he was selected.

If your going to mention "stats", back up your claim, I want to see the stats.

To be fair, I think he was 17 when he was in Portugal?

 

[huddo]

To be fair, I think he was 17 when he was in Portugal?

He was there under 2 years ago.

 

[Decentric]

A good game by Teague. Of course playing direct and forward is a pretty rudimentary thing for a professional. I'm glad he followed Popovic's instructions.

China were like traffic cones which probably embellishes Teague's game. It's a good start and now we'll have to see it against a better opponent.

We haven't had that many play in midfield to compare. Mooy is untouchable but Teague is better than Devlin, Brattan, Caceres. Baccus had occasional good games while O'Neill's debut against Ecuador was excellent. Irvine has only started to sharpen on his passing and had been woeful for a long time.

Short cameos but Yazbek and Nisbet looked very good on the ball too. That's what it's about, getting it moving. It was a joy to see Australia playing directly for a change.

Nisbet is my only real question as to why Popa hasn't selected him?

Popa has said that Ballard was very close to being selected, but wanted to look at players with a different skillset - meaning Teague and Triantis.

In the AL I think WU's Thurstan, has been marginally better than Teague. I'm also very impressed with Teague's midfield teammate Valadon ( a midfield general) - and Jake Hollman ( a box to boxer like Irvine, but slicker on the ball).

With O'Neill on the ball, he has quick handling speed and is both sided. Hence, he receives left, and passes with the right foot, or receives right foot and passes with the left foot. His body shape is always good. Opponents can't exploit a weak side - right or left. And O'Neill did plenty of rough stuff and donkey work against Indo, which I value highly.

I've noted Teague is more one foot dominant and favours his preferred left foot and left side of the body. Once he was caught out with a non-preferred right foot receive and attempted pass with his right foot , he fumbled it, but his one and two touch passing with right foot receive and left foot pass, or left foot one touch pass, is superb! Fast handling speed too.

Teague gets so quickly into ideal body position to left foot one touch pass - he might already be the best in the current senior Socceroos at this, but he has plenty of competition from younger Aussies not in the senior Socceroo set up.

At the 18 min mark, Ryan played a hospital pass to Teague a few metres out from our goal, with Chinese markers closing him down on both sides. He one foot, left foot passed in virtually no time and space to Behich with perfect body shape. Incredible composure - and technique from the debutant!

I've seen Yazbek a bit with the Young Socceroos and rate him way behind most of about half dozen number 6s and 8s, who are mainly younger.

Teague might have run out of gas, as China increased the squeezing intensity in the second half, but we now have Irvine, O'Neill and Teague, with differing levels of experience, but they are similar in quality as 6s.

For those who extol the virtues of Triantis as a DM, Popa would have had a good look at the relative merits of Teague and Triantis in training games in camp.

I'm just about to start my stats, and at this stage don't have much idea about how Teague stacks up in 1v1s? He has been quite a good ball winner for Melb Vic in the AL.

 

[grazorblade]

My memory is that Grazor noted that the pressing triggers were the LCB getting the ball, a poor first touch, and maybe some other things that are pretty fundamental. Similarly with ball movement when pressed in possession. These sort of things are pretty standard even at a semi-pro level, I can't believe that it is beyond the ability of a pro to understand and implement within one or two training sessions, plus video analysis and presentations that I'm sure Popavic would do quite comprehensively.

There were quite a few other details as well like taggart running forward while velupilay and Boyle ran into the space between the 5 man press and the back line. Behich defending short corners. The movement off set pieces has improved. Those quick forward passing sequences through a press require support players to go into position. Committing more numbers when the ball goes down one flank than the other unless the Indo 10 is there. I'm sure I haven't noticed everything, the players in interviews have also made a note about the attention to detail going to another level

None of it is mind-blowing, but its more habing a lot of instructions rather than any one instruction being hard. You see a complex game plans at club level. But it is rare to see this much detail in international football because u don't get much time with players. I'm obvious not an international player or coach haha but game plans do seem to become simpler in international football than club. So it probably is hard to get this much detail in even for pro footballers

 

[NicCarBel]

Year in year out, Saudi Arabia are consistently lower in the FIFA rankings, but Saudi always somehow manages automatic qualification - whereas we have to go through the tortuous playoffs.

I've lost count of the number of times we won the playoff by the skin of our teeth, meaning it could have gone the other way. These come to mind:

- Josh Kennedy's header securing qualification for 2014
- the Syrian's shot at goal in 2018 that hit the post
- The Wiggles' save against Peru in 2022

Overall, many of our WC qualifications have been by the skin of our teeth, whereas Saudi has gotten automatic qualification most times in recent history. Therefore I'm not the happiest that this year it's coming down to the wire against against Saudi Arabia.

Not sure where you’re getting your info from (Perhaps that’s for another thread) - but 2014 was not a playoff, and that goal technically wasn’t what secured qualification, as the way things eventually panned out, we’d have qualified with a loss in that match regardless

 

[jas88]

@jas88 re: Paramount use AFC Asian Qualifiers as your search term. It should be there with all the other games. Its worth favouriting.

Thanks mate, I normally just go to the Socceroos page but yeah they don't seem to update that one.

Also thanks for the bday wishes fellas.

 

[NicCarBel]

https://digitalhub.fifa.com/m/18d857c3ec3e64f8/original/FIFA-World-Cup-2026-Preliminary-Competition_EN.pdf

The FIFA regs list tiebreakers for group stage as below (Page 20 clause 5)

In the league format, the ranking in each group is determined as follows:
a. Greatest number of points obtained in all group matches
b. Highest goal difference in all group matches
c. Greatest number of goals scored in all group matches

If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their
rankings shall be determined as follows:
d. Greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the
teams concerned
e. Highest goal difference resulting from the group matches between the
teams concerned
f. Greatest number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams
concerned
g. Greatest number of goals scored away from home by the teams concerned
h. The highest team-conduct score relating to the number of yellow and red
cards for players and team officials in all group matches is considered
according to the following deductions:
• First yellow card:
• Second yellow card/indirect red card:
• Direct red card:
• Yellow card and direct red card:
minus 1 point
minus 3 points
minus 4 points
minus 5 points
Only one of the above deductions shall be applied to a player in a single
match. The team with the highest number of points shall be ranked highest
i. Drawing of lots by FIFA in collaboration with the confederation(s)

Yep, had already clarified that error

Two points qualifies us for sure, 3 points means we may still miss out.

Yes, but is very, very unlikely. If I can be bothered shortly, I can break down the goal difference required that may result in that, but it’s essentially in the double digits

 

[Kitwally]

He was there under 2 years ago.

Hmmm, yes he was. Players can be late bloomers though. Aussies are not rated in Portugal. Which Aussie has ever done well there? Carter is doing well now in the 2nd division but I think he is the first to do so?

 

[NicCarBel]

I think only obligated to show home games on free to air?

Actual world cups, for example, would fall under that. Anti-siphoning isn't relevant for WCQs I believe.

As well as a host of other stuff. Olympic qualifiers, under 17s etc. Channel 10 show them because they're not with a pay TV service.

I think it's something like that. But also I don't think they have a choice if the host broadcaster has deals set up elsewhere or with other providers.

Yes it’s the anti-siphoning list that makes that a thing.

Events on the anti siphoning list (for football, is only home World Cup Qualifiers for both Socceroos and Matildas, all games at the World Cup Finals for Socceroos and Matildas, and the World Cup Final for men and women.

Even then, it’s not a guarantee, it basically means the FTA get first dibs on those games, and if they don’t want/don’t want to pay for them, they are allowed to go to market for Pay TV - technically all NRL and AFL games are on the list too, but the networks aren’t willing to pay for them all/make a deal with the leagues to allow them to try and get more money via Pay TV.

 

[patjennings]

Rightly or wrongly, I believe some posters on G and G, not our Socceroo hating posters from the right wing nut job forum who troll G and G, but genuine Socceroo fans who always appear disgruntled with whomever the Socceroo coach is - at any given point in time. For the record I think all of Ange, Bert, Arnie and Popa have been effective coaches for the Socceroos. I thought Holger was the wrong coach - which was raised a lot in national coaching conferences with Han Berger.

Pim also got a lot of stick and apart from the game against Germany proved he was a high quality manager.

For the first 2 games in this WCQ round, the final round, Australia lost to Bahrain (with stats showing we should have won decisively), and drew with Indo in Jakarta. Again the match stats showed we should have won in Jakarta.

Then Arnie quit. He said he had lost the plot since the Asian Cup. I admire his honesty.

I suspect that Arnie would have got similar results to Popa. As you said we dominated those games but the points didn't fall our way.

Any coach sees how players perform relative to each other in camp. Some combine much better with each other, than other players. There was a profound difference between Behich and Davidson at LB a few years ago in terms of playing fluently and cohesively with players around them when they played Socceroo LB.

Davidson's as a LB for the Socceroos in a back 4 was always poor in defence. as was Franjic on the right. Neither could play keep a straight offside line. In the Behich position, as he played at Perth he excelled.

Experience is absolutely paramount. Some veteran players like Irvine, Ryan, Behich and Goodwin, may be peaking in their 30s. Their bodies are holding up, and their experience means they make few mistakes, and make good decisions, plus have very good positioning in a team context.

Their game sense continues to improve. Moreover, they mentor inexperienced players around them. They may have great leadership qualities too.

Agreed.

 

[Keeper66]

I've just re-watched the whole second half followed by the first 10 minutes of the first half.

Observations:

1. From the start of the 2nd half Australia pretty much went to a 541 formation in a mid to low block as soon as China had control of the ball, and allowed China to try to work the ball forward. In the first half, when China had the ball Australia went to a 343/523 formation in a high to mid block and worked hard to win the ball back. Of course China were looking to go forward more in the 2nd half, but even so it was clear that the instructions to Australia at half time must have been to go to a more defensive formation in a deeper block. That in itself is not a problem, rather it was that when we did win the ball we were unable (or unwilling) to get players into space in higher areas and retain possession and look to build attacks.

2. The best chance China had (the shot saved by Ryan) came from Teague being unaware of a midfielder running from deeper, and allowing him to drift past and get the ball unchallenged in the penalty area. I noticed in Teague's last game for MV that he was culpable a few times defensively also. When O'Neill came on he looked much sharper and intense defensively, albeit at the last part of the game when China had tired. On this basis, I don't think I would be starting Teague against Japan, where their midfielders are always looking to make runs into space between the lines to create chances. Teague looked quite good on the ball, but not so good when needing to defend.

3. Both Boyle and Velupillay were very easily knocked off the ball, and were very weak in one-on-one contests. Borello was better at holding the ball, but was too often left to plough a lone furrow up front so if he received the ball and tried to protect it, he often had little support close to him and ended up being outnumbered by defenders. Boyle's first touch was also poor quite often. I find it a little amazing that he played almost a full game, he was pretty much a passenger out there.

 

[NicCarBel]

There are 2 guarantees in life.

NicCarBel will pull the wings and legs off every competition fly, and someone will tell us how many times he has done it and in what order

Ok let’s make it a third time.

We’ve gone through what would need to go our way to qualify. So:

The following scenarios are the outrageous scenarios where we don’t qualify directly and will be forced into the next round:

• Win over Japan and then lose to Saudi Arabia, coupled with:
  • Saudi Arabia defeating Bahrain, with a 10 goal turnaround across both of their games (assuming a 1 goal victory for Australia over Japan)

• Draw both games with Japan and Saudi Arabia, coupled with Indonesia defeating China on Matchday 9 AND Indonesia defeating Japan on Matchday 10, by a combined 13 goals.

• Draw with Japan and lose to Saudi Arabia, coupled with EITHER:
  • Saudi Arabia defeating Bahrain on Matchday 9
  • Indonesia defeating China on Matchday 9 AND Indonesia defeating Japan on Matchday 10

• Lose to Japan and draw with Saudi Arabia, coupled with EITHER:
  • Saudi Arabia defeating Bahrain by 9 goals (subtracted by the amount we lose to Japan by)
  • Indonesia defeating China on Matchday 9 AND Indonesia defeating Japan on Matchday 10

• Lose both games to Japan and Saudi Arabia, coupled with EITHER
  • Indonesia securing at least 4 points in their two games against China and Japan
    • In the event exactly 4pts are obtained, the combined goal turnaround for Indonesia will need to be 13 goals
  • Saudi Arabia draw or win against Bahrain on Matchday 9
  • Saudi Arabia loses to Bahrain on Matchday 9, but their victory and our loss goal turnaround is 9 goals or higher.

All scenarios where we win either game and draw in the other, or win both games, see us qualify directly.

Also, a loss to Japan coupled with a win over Saudi Arabia will see us qualify directly, with no bearing from other matches (as this will put us ahead of Indonesia and Saudi regardless of other results.

All the above scenarios are what will equal us with goal difference, which will require those teams to score enough goals to have scored more total goals than us.

 

[RIMB]

Ok let’s make it a third time.

We’ve gone through what would need to go our way to qualify. So:

The following scenarios are the outrageous scenarios where we don’t qualify directly and will be forced into the next round:

• Win over Japan and then lose to Saudi Arabia by 9 goals or more, plus the amount we defeat Japan by , coupled with Saudi Arabia defeating Bahrain and taking that scoreline into account as well.

• Draw both games with Japan and Saudi Arabia, coupled with Indonesia defeating China on Matchday 9 AND Indonesia defeating Japan on Matchday 10, by a combined 13 goals.

• Draw with Japan and lose to Saudi Arabia, coupled with EITHER:
  • Saudi Arabia defeating Bahrain on Matchday 9
  • Indonesia defeating China on Matchday 9 AND Indonesia defeating Japan on Matchday 10

• Lose to Japan and draw with Saudi Arabia, coupled with EITHER:
  • Saudi Arabia defeating Bahrain by 9 goals or more
  • Indonesia defeating China on Matchday 9 AND Indonesia defeating Japan on Matchday 10

• Lose both games to Japan and Saudi Arabia, coupled with EITHER
  • Indonesia securing at least 4 points in their two games against China and Japan
    • In the event exactly 4pts are obtained, the combined goal turnaround for Indonesia will need to be 13 goals
  • Saudi Arabia draw or win against Bahrain on Matchday 9
  • Saudi Arabia loses to Bahrain on Matchday 9, but their victory and our loss goal turnaround is 9 goals or higher.

All scenarios where we win either game and draw in the other, or win both games, see us qualify directly.

Also, a loss to Japan coupled with a win over Saudi Arabia will see us qualify directly, with no bearing from other matches (as this will put us ahead of Indonesia and Saudi regardless of other results.

All the above scenarios are what will equal us with goal difference, which will require those teams to score enough goals to have scored more total goals than us.

Just to clarify one thing.

Every goal Saudi score against us is a -1 to us and a +1 to them - so don't they only have to beat us by 5 or thereabouts?

 

[Muz]

I've just re-watched the whole second half followed by the first 10 minutes of the first half.

Observations:

3. Both Boyle and Velupillay were very easily knocked off the ball, and were very weak in one-on-one contests. Borello was better at holding the ball, but was too often left to plough a lone furrow up front so if he received the ball and tried to protect it, he often had little support close to him and ended up being outnumbered by defenders. Boyle's first touch was also poor quite often. I find it a little amazing that he played almost a full game, he was pretty much a passenger out there.

The subs were far too late. Boyle should have been hooked 20 minutes earlier. Velupilay, who was good in the first half, was, like you said, poor in the second. Borello was gassed and should have been hooked with Boyle. Even if you're 'protecting the lead' what's the point of having Mr headless chook Boyle running around out there. Whack Arzani on for shits and giggles instead of Duke seeing you brought him into camp and talked him up instead of at the 92 minute. Especially seeing what Boyle was dishing up.

There was a bunch of other weird shit going on in the second half too.

Miller had a shit touch, like Boyle, and suffered from poor decision making a number of times like when he blasted it into row Z when he had 2 or 3 inside of him.

Behich cops heaps of grief but he was solid all night.

 

[Muz]

Ok let’s make it a third time.

We’ve gone through what would need to go our way to qualify. So:

The following scenarios are the outrageous scenarios where we don’t qualify directly and will be forced into the next round:

• Win over Japan and then lose to Saudi Arabia by 9 goals or more, plus the amount we defeat Japan by , coupled with Saudi Arabia defeating Bahrain and taking that scoreline into account as well.

• Draw both games with Japan and Saudi Arabia, coupled with Indonesia defeating China on Matchday 9 AND Indonesia defeating Japan on Matchday 10, by a combined 13 goals.

• Draw with Japan and lose to Saudi Arabia, coupled with EITHER:
  • Saudi Arabia defeating Bahrain on Matchday 9
  • Indonesia defeating China on Matchday 9 AND Indonesia defeating Japan on Matchday 10

• Lose to Japan and draw with Saudi Arabia, coupled with EITHER:
  • Saudi Arabia defeating Bahrain by 9 goals or more
  • Indonesia defeating China on Matchday 9 AND Indonesia defeating Japan on Matchday 10

• Lose both games to Japan and Saudi Arabia, coupled with EITHER
  • Indonesia securing at least 4 points in their two games against China and Japan
    • In the event exactly 4pts are obtained, the combined goal turnaround for Indonesia will need to be 13 goals
  • Saudi Arabia draw or win against Bahrain on Matchday 9
  • Saudi Arabia loses to Bahrain on Matchday 9, but their victory and our loss goal turnaround is 9 goals or higher.

All scenarios where we win either game and draw in the other, or win both games, see us qualify directly.

Also, a loss to Japan coupled with a win over Saudi Arabia will see us qualify directly, with no bearing from other matches (as this will put us ahead of Indonesia and Saudi regardless of other results.

All the above scenarios are what will equal us with goal difference, which will require those teams to score enough goals to have scored more total goals than us.

You love this stuff.

You and JS should have a nerd-off.

 

[NicCarBel]

Just to clarify one thing.

Every goal Saudi score against us is a -1 to us and a +1 to them - so don't they only have to beat us by 5 or thereabouts?

Great point. Yes. Too much mind-numbing at work today. Will adjust/clarify in the OG

 

[Alex M]

Deliberate?

Freudian slip?

Just a typo but maybe there was something subconscious to it