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The Australian National Football Team General Discussion*OFFICIAL*

Keeper66 said:
As a coach, I don't use Google as a pedagogical tool, I try to explain and demonstrate in the training sessions.


As to your question as to what level I coach at, I don't think that is important on this forum. I coach male players who play at a reasonable level, let's just leave it at that.
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Good on you for sentence 1 - sound practice.

If it was you on a thread on new trends in gegenpressing, what you, or whomever the coach was trying to impart to players, it sounded quite sophisticated. A few years back , a few of the senior NPL clubs' players in this state, devoid of years of underage current methodology in Aus, would have struggled to comprehend it.

Credit to you for coaching! The more people coaching and having accreditation the better for the entire football scene in Aus - and for national team success.

It was massive objective of the Baan/Berger/Abrahms coaching eras - to improve coach education in Aus and to spread it as widely as possible.
 
NicCarBel said:
Yep that about covers it.

It's a shitshow to calculate though, because so many variables, and I think also uses past outcomes to predict chances, etc. Hence, why I think you're on the right track about it being an AI thing.
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I'm guessing it is AI.

There must be a bit that is AI. On TV when I see the half time and full time stats, they appear to be dodgy.

When I do my own stats it can sometimes involve 3- 4 replays to determine who has won a 1v1 heading duel, or whether a pass was completed. This can take some time.

Impossible to do accurately in live time like the TV has immediately. With Socceroo games against Japan and Saudi, I was getting 6-8% differences in possession over whole games compared to the TV coverage.

After one Socceroo game early in Geria's resurgent Socceroo career, off forum a person quoted with Melb Vic he only won 2 out of 6 heading 1v1 duels contested in the next AL match.

When I watched a replay, I wouldn't have considered any of them to be defined as 1v1 duels. Geria and his supposed opponents, were too far from each other in criteria I use to determine a 1v1 heading contest every time he headed a ball.

Shots at goal and corners are easier to determine in live time.
 
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Probably the best xg will use machine learning but even low quality xg will be really accurate as it is calibrated to huge data sets and you can press a few buttons and instantly get a pretty accurate xg

1) xy coordinates of the shot (stat collector clicks on a map of the pitch where the shot is played)
2) type of shot (header, volley, shot with preferred/nonpreferred foot)
3) pressure on shot (yes/no)
4) number of defenders blocking at least part of the goal from the perspective of the shooter
5) type of shot assist (open play, set piece, body position of shooter, hard or soft delivery)
6) time of game shot is made (later shots have lower xg due to fatigue)

these buttons can be clicked in a number of seconds to get a good estimate for a live xg, but paid for programs will probably do a lot more
 
ah here we go this simulates the cheep version of xg calculator so people can do it themselves when rewatching games

click on how to use to see how to position defenders

xG Calculator

This is an interactive soccer kick simulation tool that returns different xG values from different models found in the literature. This tool enables users to create or import real shots and visualize the discrepancies in xG outcomes between the implemented models.
expectedgoalcalculator.com expectedgoalcalculator.com
 
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Quicky said:
Part of the US trip? NZ, USA and Canada are pretty dull opponents with little variety in playing styles. I would have liked to have games against some latin flavoured teams for the US trip.
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I think the main thing is we have 4 games and that these windows should be used to give a few fringe players an opportunity to be in a camp and get some decent (min 30 minutes) game time. If Popa has around 10-12 players he will definitely pick barring injury I think he should give each of those one of the windows off. He can then concentrate on the November and March windows to finalise his squad and hopefully have some decent varies opposition. So far all the friendlies are against teams who will be there next year, although it can be argued they've all had the easiest path to qualification.
 
Popovic to give Balard 5min in Montreal and say he wasn't a good fit. Too caught up in the French vibes there.
 
We ended up winning both games last time around but I think we failed to learn what to do without Irvine and learned what we can do with him. Metcalfe certainly showed up while O'Neill was just alright. Next 4 games we've got to mix it up.
 
Away kit undoubtedly to make debut NZ away.
 
Alex M said:
I think the main thing is we have 4 games and that these windows should be used to give a few fringe players an opportunity to be in a camp and get some decent (min 30 minutes) game time. If Popa has around 10-12 players he will definitely pick barring injury I think he should give each of those one of the windows off. He can then concentrate on the November and March windows to finalise his squad and hopefully have some decent varies opposition. So far all the friendlies are against teams who will be there next year, although it can be argued they've all had the easiest path to qualification.
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I agree and I hope thats what we see, with the fringe guys used. I still think it'd be good to see us play some different styles. I don't think those two things are mutually exclusive.
 
erogenouszone said:
Still feels odd not needing a sudden-death-all-on-the-line-it-will-be-the-end-of-the-local-game-if-we-dont-make-it playoff to get to the world cup.
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I think whole general public feel let down by this and so would Ch10 and Paramount, everyone loves the do or die games and for TV the play offs rate the highest so Ch10 and Paramount miss out on lucrative matches to sell add revenue on these games plus the FA miss out on ticket sales for home play off matches. I mean its good we qualified directly but the implications of not doing it the hard way everyone misses out on that extra revenue and games on TV. Buy the time the Socceroo's play at the world cup they will be much forgotten with the hype of plays offs gone people will just move onto the next phase of their life like AFL and NRL.
 
repeating what I said off forum on how to use xg and xgot for general info

if a shot has a lower chance of a goal than recycling possession (the much maligned backwards and sideways passing) it is usually considered a bad decision. So the fraction of final third entries that result in goals is about 6 percent. So any shot with an xg less than 0.06 is a bad decision (though it is good to have the occasional low xg shot to keep the attack from being predictable). Milanovics xg per non penalty shot is 0.07, which means his decision making is really poor because although he stacks up the numbers, he is preventing team mates from getting good chances. Segecic is 0.095 which is ok, but also he is a really good finisher. He has an xgot slightly higher per shot of 0.15 suggesting it is actually a good decision for him to make more difficult shots. Irankunda's xgot per non penalty shot is about 0.8 which is low but no disaster. It is a lot higher than his xg per shot suggesting he should take a pop every now and then (I've worried that grasshopper are coaching his long shots out of his game since he rarely takes long shots these days)
 
NoMates said:
I think whole general public feel let down by this and so would Ch10 and Paramount, everyone loves the do or die games and for TV the play offs rate the highest so Ch10 and Paramount miss out on lucrative matches to sell add revenue on these games plus the FA miss out on ticket sales for home play off matches. I mean its good we qualified directly but the implications of not doing it the hard way everyone misses out on that extra revenue and games on TV. Buy the time the Socceroo's play at the world cup they will be much forgotten with the hype of plays offs gone people will just move onto the next phase of their life like AFL and NRL.
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I agree with what you say but there is absolutely no way the game needs to be hinged on do or die qualifying. Just no. The playoffs always reeked of clutching at straws knowing nearly or even didn't deserve it.
 
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