Like the post, but to play devils advocate for a moment, theres a couple of things to raise.
The best team in Victoria outside the A-league is Avondale. No disrespect to them, but what do they add to the top tier professional competition in this country? They barely have an NPL level venue.
You can't "forget crowd numbers" We keep getting told football is the most participated sport in the country. Each and every club needs to convert these participants into fans to make this league sustainable.
In a 20 team comp is the expectation to play 38 games? Theres no room in the calendar for that, and to be honest the fans wont show up to that many games.
I like what you are saying in terms of expanding the league before relegation comes in, but there are better ways.
The A-league should be monitoring Tasmania and the circus around the AFL stadium, and jumping in their grave immediately if the AFL team falls over.
Another QLD team is also a must. Theres your 15. Thats the magical number for me. Play everyone twice. 28 games.
I take your points.
Bringing in an Avondale is exactly the point of promotion to me. It is not about who should be there in business terms - it is about who earned the right to be there.
My concern with choosing teams through the NPL is that you have each State/Territory's own NPL - so we would need a playoff comp for promotion out of all the NPL comps. Would Avondale be the best in the whole APL (or NST)? Surely not, but they would have a chance to prove that they were.
Those 'lower' teams would also have the same chance as any lower league team in any country to upgrade their side on winning promotion. If they don't or can't do that they will just go back down the following season when relegation also comes in. They will have had their moment in the sun though.
For the 20 team scenario, fair enough on the calendar. The money in the squads would need to cover more players if we had more games and maybe that is not an option. If we are talking eventual relegation of only one team we can get away with less teams in it. I liked the safety for my aleague club in having 19 other teams that would have to be better in any season before we dropped - perhaps that is slanted too heavily in favour of staying up given multiple teams get relegated in other 20 team comps.
I would prefer 16 teams to your 15 just so there is no Bye round though. 30 rounds instead of 28.
I want Tassie and the ACT to have teams and I wish we had a second Qld team in. That makes 16. NT is a puzzle for me - we have the Australia Cup playoffs there and it is stinking hot/humid so away games to the NT would be unhealthy as things stand.
When I say forget the crowds, I don't care if a team only brings in a small number of supporters to games. Each team has the chance, the need and the responsibility to build their attendance and support base for financial reasons but having crowds as a factor for joining is wrong. It should be about the football. I don't care if we have 2-3k crowds in the ACT. Making the competition truly national as a starting point is important to me. Relegation will weed out unsustainable clubs one by one.
The advantage of promoting sides rather than always selecting clubs to expand is that it sets the scene for relegation over time after first introducing a reward for playing well.
Soapbox Corner
The Rabbit (Sink) Hole of Perpetual Doom:
It seems to me the one overriding factor against earned promotion is the nationalistic/ethnic team issue that has to be buried once and for all or we can never go P/R. It is an issue that has had much discussion over a long period, and it cannot be ignored. 'Public fear and perception' of potential games like Brisbane Israelites v Perth Palestinians, which in the minds of the public turn the positive celebration of cultures into fear of political and historical warzones, is a real fear.
I am saddened by the fact that it may remain a stumbling block longer than I will live, but every single sokkah incident in any country where race or ethnicity is perceived to have lead to violence or riotous behaviour and hatred will extend the resistance to inclusion and P/R. Those who use football as their bandwagon for violent agenda will keep us in the dark. All mainstream media has to say is "See..." and we are gone again.
My only hope for P/R is that the administration will see that the vanilla geographic dreams of football acceptance is not the answer and that it is the self-sustaining stigma of football and organised resistance against its growth that limits the sport rather than the ethnicity of community clubs.