World Cup Qualification Thread for 2026 - Socceroos/Asia

[Alex M]

Yes, but is very, very unlikely. If I can be bothered shortly, I can break down the goal difference required that may result in that, but it’s essentially in the double digits

I think the Saudis need to at score more than double the amount of goals they've scored in eight matches in the last two. Agree very unlikely but I thought it was an interesting quirk.

 

[JS96]

You love this stuff.

You and JS should have a nerd-off.

Nic sees permutations I could only dream of. My walks the past 3 campaigns have been consumed by this thinking though. Glad to say this campaign isn't as intensive as the past two.

 

[Mr Cleansheets]

Just to clarify one thing.

Every goal Saudi score against us is a -1 to us and a +1 to them - so don't they only have to beat us by 5 or thereabouts?

That aint gonna happen.

 

[Quicky]

 

[Quicky]

 

[NicCarBel]

Updated projected intercontinental playoffs (using current standings for placement, and rankings for any further rounds)

OFC - New Caledonia
AFC - Saudi Arabia
CONMEBOL - Venezuela
CAF - Senegal
CONCACAF 1 - Honduras
CONCACAF 2 - Haiti

 

[huddo]

Updated projected intercontinental playoffs (using current standings for placement, and rankings for any further rounds)

OFC - New Caledonia
AFC - Saudi Arabia
CONMEBOL - Venezuela
CAF - Senegal
CONCACAF 1 - Honduras
CONCACAF 2 - Haiti

Love the enthusiasm, but the AFC intercontinental qualifier will be the 3rd best from repechage.

 

[grazorblade]

Updated projected intercontinental playoffs (using current standings for placement, and rankings for any further rounds)

OFC - New Caledonia
AFC - Saudi Arabia
CONMEBOL - Venezuela
CAF - Senegal
CONCACAF 1 - Honduras
CONCACAF 2 - Haiti

you'd love to get ofc or concacaf oponents

CAF looks tough

 

[huddo]

you'd love to get ofc or concacaf oponents

CAF looks tough

Noting the weakness of OFC, I'd be surprised if they held their one spot in 4 years.

 

[NicCarBel]

Love the enthusiasm, but the AFC intercontinental qualifier will be the 3rd best from repechage.

As said - using current standings standings for the current round, then rankings for further rounds.

Using the current 6 nations in 3rd and 4th of the 3 groups, Saudi Arabia is ranked 3rd (behind Qatar and Iraq)

EDIT: Although, yes, using live tracking of the rankings (which haven’t been updated since December), Saudi Arabia would rise to second, with Iraq falling to third. All other confederation remain unaffected, so the updated hypothetical 1v(3v6)/2v(4v5) draw would be:
Senegal v Iraq/New Caledonia
Venezuela v Honduras/El Salvador

 

[NicCarBel]

you'd love to get ofc or concacaf oponents

CAF looks tough

Using those 6 teams, the two teams receiving byes to the final playoff would be Senegal and Venezuela. I believe the other 4 are drawn randomly into place, but using a 2v(3v6)/1v(4v5) format:

Senegal v Saudi Arabia/New Caledonia
Venezuela v Honduras/El Salvador

 

[JS96]

CAF might see Nigeria not make it at all. Crazy groups so far.

 

[grazorblade]

CAF might see Nigeria not make it at all. Crazy groups so far.

Africa's depth seems pretty impressive, they should probably get more teams at the world cup quicker than asia/concacaf/conmenbol

 

[JS96]

Using those 6 teams, the two teams receiving byes to the final playoff would be Senegal and Venezuela. I believe the other 4 are drawn randomly into place, but using a 2v(3v6)/1v(4v5) format:

Senegal v Saudi Arabia/New Caledonia
Venezuela v Honduras/El Salvador

Funny how many of these listed teams 'belong' in the playoffs. Australia too sadly.

 

[JS96]

you'd love to get ofc or concacaf oponents

CAF looks tough

So you're saying we could qualify via Oceania for old times sake?

 

[JS96]

Yeah hang on. AFC round 4 has 2 groups of 3 with the winners going to the world cup and the 2nd placed ones playing off against each other before making then intercontinental. Crazy long route. Trust Australia to somehow get into this.

Round 4
Aus
Iraq
UAE

Somehow finish second. Playoff against Oman.

 

[grazorblade]

Wonder what path is best for our fifa ranking. You would think automatic qualification, but fifa moves in mysterious ways

 

[Bunch_of_hacks]

An interesting question. It seems that the system implemented by Poppa is complicated, hence there is no time to blood a newby into the squad in such a short time frame. Therefore incumbency rules, or the last out gets back in.

It seems an opportunity lost.

Teague just came into the squad and started immediately

 

[grazorblade]

Teague just came into the squad and started immediately

He has played for poppa

 

[JS96]

Watching replay on YouTube. Didn't realise how many risky ball losses Miller had. He headed a throw backwards in the box. On an unlucky night we'd have paid for such things but thankfully we cleared. Degenek really tidy except for the slip at the end.

A few times on the break we took the wrong option. Behich often passing back when with Bos, he'd go forward and play a one-two and keep going down the line to cross. We need more of that.

The game was managed well in the end but there were a number of poor ball decisions.

After Ryan parried that corner off the line. Teague was surrounded by 3 and held up the ball to then pass it on. Annoyingly we had space and went back. If we can set plans for set plays then surely we need instructions for moments like that to break and play it forward.

It'll be interesting to see this system again Japan as we hardly strung passes together last time.