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World Cup Qualification Thread for 2026 - Socceroos/Asia

JS96 said:
There's a cycle? I mean this time we changed kits mid qualifying.

Pim came in post Asian Cup. Holger pre. Just thing about it we've had appointments at every random stage.
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Yes there is. All the recent contracts are until we are eliminated from the WC. This applied to Guus, Pim, Holger (he got sacked after pre world cup after some poor friendly performances), Ange he quit before the World Cup) Arnie (his got extended to the current WC cycle but he resigned after a couple of disappointing results) and as far as I know to Poppa. Arnie was just a caretaker coach for the 2007 Asian Cup before Pim got the job.
 
jas88 said:
I'm thinking because Arnie did so well at the WC he wanted a good finish at the Asian cup off the back of it. But we should of used it blood some of the next gen. Probably would of been better to take Velupillay, Beach and Mo Toure instead of Fornaroli, Thomas and Jones.
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I Don't agree The Asian Cup is the tournament we have a chance of winning and we need our best squad. There is a years worth of friendlies after the Asian Cup to blood youngsters on the fringe. Youngsters at the Asian Cup should already be amongst the best 23.
 
Nothing is gauranteed in football but I would defintely give poppa a better than 50-50 shot to get through the next round if we fail to do the job against saudi/arabia then a 50-50 shot in an intercontinental championship if it goes that far

so would be a big cock up to not make it from here through at least one of the 3 paths
 
The 4th round will be a banana skin on its own. 3 teams per group. Winner goes to WC. Watch us get Iraq and Qatar in a UAE mini tournament. Losing one game is fatal. Drawing puts you in the shit.
 
Depending on the scenario, once we get on the pitch against Saudi we'll see good and bad things from our players. Just need the first 15min nerves to settle. If the Saudi game is to count at all then it's about avoiding defeat so there are 2 options results wise to get us through. I'd like Indonesia to drop points against China and have that settled. Our advantage is we will know all other results come our final game but can also get it done ourselves against Japan.

I'd take a loss to Japan and Bahrain win anyway.
 
JS96 said:
Depending on the scenario, once we get on the pitch against Saudi we'll see good and bad things from our players. Just need the first 15min nerves to settle. If the Saudi game is to count at all then it's about avoiding defeat so there are 2 options results wise to get us through. I'd like Indonesia to drop points against China and have that settled. Our advantage is we will know all other results come our final game but can also get it done ourselves against Japan.

I'd take a loss to Japan and Bahrain win anyway.
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I guess there are 27 possible scenarios in the next window and we fail in only 3 of them
1) Japan defeat Australia, Saudi beat Bahrain then Australia
2) Japan defeat Australia, Saudi draw with Bahrain then beat Australia
3) Japan draw with Australia, Saudi beat Bahrain then beat Australia

So we really have to have a calamitous window to fail. Then again, 1998 required a calamitous window....
 
grazorblade said:
I guess there are 27 possible scenarios in the next window and we fail in only 3 of them
1) Japan defeat Australia, Saudi beat Bahrain then Australia
2) Japan defeat Australia, Saudi draw with Bahrain then beat Australia
3) Japan draw with Australia, Saudi beat Bahrain then beat Australia

So we really have to have a calamitous window to fail. Then again, 1998 required a calamitous window....
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My friend is a Preston fan and he's adamant they'll get bitten and go down tomorrow. A bit like the Bundesliga 2 race that games are played at different times so we'll see certain equations disappear. One benefit of our good GD is that we can go all out against Japan if we're trailing. Should we have a lead you can bet we'll shut up shop and just beg Japan to yield. Japan had some chances but generally went light on Saudi.
 
It sucks Japan are going to play there full stretch side, they where missing a few stars when playing the Saudis. Maybe the Arabs paid Japan some decent coin to do so.
 
NoMates said:
It sucks Japan are going to play there full stretch side, they where missing a few stars when playing the Saudis. Maybe the Arabs paid Japan some decent coin to do so.
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Japan had below average omissions that window. Japan may play anyone. Their challenge is to work out their best possible team. They've got a mountain of headaches. While luxury, it's tricky to settle. I find slightly more dangerous is playing hungry reserves as this is their chance to get WC selection.

With a bit of luck we'll have the ball, Japan maybe overstretch here and there and we get some good chances. Watching the away game we were swarmed on the ball and too nervous. We needed more urgency and that's where the goal came from.
 
grazorblade said:
I guess there are 27 possible scenarios in the next window and we fail in only 3 of them
1) Japan defeat Australia, Saudi beat Bahrain then Australia
2) Japan defeat Australia, Saudi draw with Bahrain then beat Australia
3) Japan draw with Australia, Saudi beat Bahrain then beat Australia

So we really have to have a calamitous window to fail. Then again, 1998 required a calamitous window....
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I mean.. technically more scenarios than that: Indonesia is still within a chance, so that brings it to 243 possible scenarios.

I can’t be bothered to do the calculations right now (surprisingly) so I let the computers do it:

  • Draw-Lose path: 10 elimination scenarios
  • Lose-Lose path: 24 elimination scenarios
    → Total: 34 scenarios where Australia does not qualify
 
NicCarBel said:
I mean.. technically more scenarios than that: Indonesia is still within a chance, so that brings it to 243 possible scenarios.

I can’t be bothered to do the calculations right now (surprisingly) so I let the computers do it:

  • Draw-Lose path: 10 elimination scenarios
  • Lose-Lose path: 24 elimination scenarios
    → Total: 34 scenarios where Australia does not qualify
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similar ratio then. 34 in 243 scenarios

probably similar chances as not qualifying when you got an away goal and draw against iran and are leading 2-0 at half time at home....so what could go wrong :D
 
grazorblade said:
similar ratio then. 34 in 243 scenarios

probably similar chances as not qualifying when you got an away goal and draw against iran and are leading 2-0 at half time at home....so what could go wrong :D
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The Mourning after came on my feed today and I gave it a quick brush over. Still amazingly offside that first Iran goal. We toyed with them most of the game.
 
If it does come to Australia losing then Bahrain beating Saudi it'll be a chuckle just like 2014. All that fear for nothing. I doubt it will be but Gulf clashes are their own animal and Bahrain are plucky.
 
JS96 said:
The Mourning after came on my feed today and I gave it a quick brush over. Still amazingly offside that first Iran goal. We toyed with them most of the game.
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if we had var we qualify for france but miss out on germany. So it all evens out in the end i guess
 
grazorblade said:
and definitely not a pen from schwarzer in the away leg right?
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I have such little recollection of the first leg. I've just seen the footage. Looks bad. Post scene the ref is seen blocking the sun from his eyes. Recoba gets up way too quickly and was the master of deceit. Had he actually been kicked on the kneecap he'd have been down screaming like he'd been shot.

A bit like the Japan simulation late with Cahill. Slow replays show a tilt in forward hip and shoulder movement from a static position made it very easy to fall forward.

Interesting to note that dodgy Jordan away penalty under Ange was given by a Japanese ref that day. The Syria away penalty in Malaka was an absolute joke while the flop at the Asian Cup by them was too.
 
JS96 said:
Got to say the schedule for pot 2 isn't the best, especially for Australia's case. Home game to start every window which means flying across more time zones. Also the only pot with H/A every time while some ME teams have H/H and their away game is across a ditch.

ME has great facilities for a camp and we'll be to Australia in good time also.

It's in our hands but hopefully Indonesia are nudged back right away and the Bahrain Saudi game is crucial.
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Id rather be in pot 2 than being in a group with Japan & Sth Korea.
 
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