RTS has already added some points, but the fact is the Russian army is incredible weaker. Let's not forget they thought this would be over in 3 days. If another war started now what would they do? Have you seen the equipment they are importing and using? To say their equipment has been upgraded and recycled is naive. They have in small parts, but in no way a sufficient number. Also the brain drain from Russia is going to kill them in the next ten years. Many with an education and cash have tried to leave.
And perhaps the most important of all - where are they going to get microchip technology? They're screwed without a quick answer to this question.
Let's not forget the Russians are a professional army fighting an army of citizens. Citizens who refuse to back down and hide, while Putin is a paranoid recluse.
I have some close friends at the moment fighting in Ukraine, so I get a lot of interesting insights - they have showed incredible resilience.
I do not disagree with either (Edit: I mean either you or RTS) of your points much. I was not trying to suggest that Russia were cruising through this - more just pointing out that they are not losing out of this war as much as it might look on face value. The brain drain is a huge factor into the future. At the same time, if other countries don't pay their brains enough they are going to lose them to places like (or perhaps affiliated with) Russia. Again without sources, but we lose a lot of our own brains to 'foreign powers' that way.
I am not pro-Russian by any means. I do not belittle the heroic efforts of the Ukraine either. I would hope that we would do half as well digging in and defending our own homes if it comes to an invasion of our country. We have seen how hard it is to winkle out dug in defenders across many global conflicts.
Russia took old chassis and put new engines in them and reinforced the armour. I did not mean they had modern tanks as a result - just that what they used did the job of being a tank and did not cost them anywhere near the amount that building a modern tank would. They discovered, by using their crappy remakes, that tank warfare has become very ineffective. On the flipside, Ukraine posted footage of their fantastic new secret factory allowing Russia to examine building approvals/blueprints over the years, identify the location, and destroy it.
Early on, the Ukraine showed one of their effective anti-tank snipers to be a woman knitting, putting it aside and killing a tank commander, then going back to knitting. Within a week she was targeted and killed. Prior to that she was a secret and effective fighter with I can't remember how many kills (over 100 I think it was).
The Ukrainians took their phones into their positions allowing the Russians to scan and identify locations over a period of time then target and destroy whole forces 'remotely'.
It is that naivety that I am talking about where social media and the 'need' to broadcast successes has cost the Ukraine heavily at times.
The $150 drones that simply carried bombs to take out Russian tanks have been overcome by wire meshing around the top of the tank to stop their approach. Every type of tank that has come up against Russia, in the meantime, has been studied, captured, and had weaknesses identified.
For microchips, Russia buys toys. The technology has been denied them through direct purchases but relatively cheap toys have microchips that can easily manage the simple movement functions required for deadly purposes.
For their army - I thought Russia still had the cream of its forces untouched by the war - using conscripts as cannon fodder while learning a great deal about the current state of modern warfare. It is a sweeping generalisation, but I believe Russia has now got a larger battle hardened and experienced army than they had at the start. Their equipment has been tested, found wanting, and improved - the same as their tactics. If this war extends beyond the Ukraine the next country will be facing a much harder task from day 1 due to the training and lessons taught to the Russians by the Ukraine.
I can't say - but did Russia really believe it would be over in 3 days? I do find that hard to believe regardless of whatever propaganda they espoused.
Again, none of this is meant to belittle the heroic efforts by the Ukraine to defend their country. They have held out against a professional war machine that has been developed and refined as the conflict has gone on.
TSF - I wish your friends all the best mate. I think it pretty safe to say most of us know people directly affected by the war and we feel the more for them because of it.
