Expansion Thread

[grazorblade]

Got clarity on the a league ratings and the effect of expansion. On this ratijg system there is maybe 100-140 points between divisions. The a league declined 25 points during the last 6 years due to expansion diluting the talent and almost all leagues outside the big 5 declining relative to them. Taking into account the improvement of the big 5 supressing everyones ratings the a leagues decline due to expansion of 2 teams is about 15, or one tenth of a division. This is pretty small and i think its worth expanding by an extra few to get the extra player pathways

 

[zimbos05]

Rush? The NST has been brewing for at least a decade now, probably more. It's been one of the slowest progressing things in Australian football, second only to WU's shovel-ready stadium. What foundation? Australian clubs all over the country have been screaming for a second division. One of the only reason the NST has any traction at all is because 30 fed up clubs got together, formed a group, all chipped in thousands of dollars, invested time to write a proposal and applied pressure to FA. Are these clubs not part of the foundation?

Yep. Been brewing for so long because the FA have done sweet eff all to secure that foundation. If anything, you are proving my point. The FA have been very hapless at ensuring the future of football in this country that clubs had to revolt. You now want that same FA to run a 2nd tier of football when they are doing a shit job of running the 1st tier.

 

[LFC]

The FA are not running APL since the unbundling.

You got to step back a bit, Johnson only took over from 2020.
Don't forget the game the last 20yrs been managed by Lowy/AL AND they weren't going to help grow anything below AL so thats your ongoing sweet f all mess right there.
Apart from the NPL Clubs pushing the NST barrow Johnson as CEO agreed this needs to go ahead for Football in the country and further below.
He wants to see P/R introduced as well - go find all the articles.
His issues are trying to get all factors come to party, PFA, Feds, you name it and then we have the APL putting in their stop signs.

Sure its a right royal mess but its all there, the old Clubs survived 20yrs in the doldrums and will for ever and a day - I keep saying to you you got to start somewhere, bit by bit the probs will get dealt with, the under lying ones come to surface, again can be dealt with.
Rome wasn't built in a day as they say.

 

[grazorblade]

Yep. Been brewing for so long because the FA have done sweet eff all to secure that foundation. If anything, you are proving my point. The FA have been very hapless at ensuring the future of football in this country that clubs had to revolt. You now want that same FA to run a 2nd tier of football when they are doing a shit job of running the 1st tier.

I don't think that is the reason for the delay

The fa said 6 clubs met the technical criteria but couldnt stump up 500k in cash. The original 31 clubs that submitted the proposal for the afc would likely have all been ready if not for that 500k criteria

 

[libelous]

Yep. Been brewing for so long because the FA have done sweet eff all to secure that foundation. If anything, you are proving my point. The FA have been very hapless at ensuring the future of football in this country that clubs had to revolt. You now want that same FA to run a 2nd tier of football when they are doing a shit job of running the 1st tier.

Your argument is so full of holes that I can’t be bothered with any meaningful response.

 

[zimbos05]

I don't think that is the reason for the delay

The fa said 6 clubs met the technical criteria but couldnt stump up 500k in cash. The original 31 clubs that submitted the proposal for the afc would likely have all been ready if not for that 500k criteria

One of the points was that an NST would automatically make them professional along with all the clubs. If only 6 clubs can afford the 500k, how then would that satisfy that point?

The FA are not running APL since the unbundling.


Sure its a right royal mess but its all there, the old Clubs survived 20yrs in the doldrums and will for ever and a day - I keep saying to you you got to start somewhere, bit by bit the probs will get dealt with, the under lying ones come to surface, again can be dealt with.
Rome wasn't built in a day as they say.

I knew the unbundling would be brought up. This actually adds more weight to the lack of resources.

And like I've said so many times, I don't disagree with many of the points being made. I'm simply talking from my own views, experience, and understandings. From covering the A-League for 10 years. From covering the EPL and working at an EPL club. From my dealings with FQ and other governing bodies. The bit by bit needs to be done. I just don't think that that bit is the NST in the mould that everyone seems to envision it.

Your argument is so full of holes that I can’t be bothered with any meaningful response.

You can think that. I'm not going to lose sleep over it. I know the documents I've seen and the conversations I've had

 

[libelous]

One of the points was that an NST would automatically make them professional along with all the clubs. If only 6 clubs can afford the 500k, how then would that satisfy that point?



I knew the unbundling would be brought up. This actually adds more weight to the lack of resources.

And like I've said so many times, I don't disagree with many of the points being made. I'm simply talking from my own views, experience, and understandings. From covering the A-League for 10 years. From covering the EPL and working at an EPL club. From my dealings with FQ and other governing bodies. The bit by bit needs to be done. I just don't think that that bit is the NST in the mould that everyone seems to envision it.


You can think that. I'm not going to lose sleep over it. I know the documents I've seen and the conversations I've had

Well you’re not setting it out in a very clear way.

 

[grazorblade]

One of the points was that an NST would automatically make them professional along with all the clubs. If only 6 clubs can afford the 500k, how then would that satisfy that point?

Sorry, I don't follow here. Could you reword?

 

[grazorblade]

Well you’re not setting it out in a very clear way.

libelous was unnecessarily hostile imo, but I do agree I'm having trouble following your logic of why any of the points you raise are in favour of not doing an nst. Maybe I'm misinterpreting you

as for expansion, I think the main point you had was dilution. The fa released some data on the dilution effect of expanding by two teams and the dilution effect was tiny (I followed up with specifics. The quality in 6 years decline due to expansion by roughly a tenth of the gap between the eredivisie/jupiler league/championship and league one, for the benefit of a minimum of 12 extra starting spots for aussies each week and 40 extra pro contracts)

 

[LFC]

One of the points was that an NST would automatically make them professional along with all the clubs. If only 6 clubs can afford the 500k, how then would that satisfy that point?



I knew the unbundling would be brought up. This actually adds more weight to the lack of resources.

And like I've said so many times, I don't disagree with many of the points being made. I'm simply talking from my own views, experience, and understandings. From covering the A-League for 10 years. From covering the EPL and working at an EPL club. From my dealings with FQ and other governing bodies. The bit by bit needs to be done. I just don't think that that bit is the NST in the mould that everyone seems to envision it.


You can think that. I'm not going to lose sleep over it. I know the documents I've seen and the conversations I've had

Sure zimbos, I would HOPE the FA and the NST Clubs have ironed out alot of bit and bits for otherwise why would you look to launch.
I get where your coming from.
The amount of docs and investigations have carried on for years.
Surely they have have got the pieces alot more together than not.

 

[zimbos05]

Sorry, I don't follow here. Could you reword?

One of the other posters said that the benefit to having an NST would be that all the players in it would become professional on full time contracts and not have to worry about having a second job. I countered that 50k is not a liveable wage. So if clubs can't put together 500k, how would they pay all these professional contracts?

Sure zimbos, I would HOPE the FA and the NST Clubs have ironed out alot of bit and bits for otherwise why would you look to launch.
I get where your coming from.
The amount of docs and investigations have carried on for years.
Surely they have have got the pieces alot more together than not.

Look, I want an NST and I want it to be as successful as the next person. I hope that when it does happen it is successful. At this stage I hold reservations and its purely off my own dealings with football in this country for the last 20 years.

I don't know about the other state bodies, but FQ has been a rather difficult shit show of late, so I have no confidence in them.

 

[grazorblade]

One of the other posters said that the benefit to having an NST would be that all the players in it would become professional on full time contracts and not have to worry about having a second job. I countered that 50k is not a liveable wage. So if clubs can't put together 500k, how would they pay all these professional contracts?

I see

I guess the question is how much the nst consolidates talent from the npl. If it consolidates enough to be a clear gap in quality with the npl it provides a good intermediate step to the a league

there are 1000 npl players starting each week. My estimate is that the normal gap between a division is the higher division has the top quarter of talent compared to the lower division. So in principle they want to scoop up from those top 250 starting players. However, if the nst starts with 12 clubs that leaves 132 starting players. Presumably some will be loanees from the a league and there will also be a 1-2 foreign players per club. So you probably need to tempt between a third and a quarter of elite npl players to join the nst to get a normal gap between the divisions.

I would be surprised if the prestige of playing on the national stage wouldn't be enough to tempt a quarter of elite players, even if there is no bump in salaries

 

[LFC]

Originally the NST talk was that X Clubs viable would be Pro, they came up with the funds required to qualify so they can afford paying for all the needs.
Then due to numbers it was mentioned they would allow Clubs to get in as Semi Pro so as they could have 10/12 Clubs and go from there.
Have no clue how thats gonna work and improve but they must have had something that sounded viable to give it a go.

As for player salaries ahead, look a challenge but I think its not the be all that would jeopardise everything.
Snr and proven players already get their $$, up and comers etc sure wouldn't expect huge $'s and besides would be luving just to play and get some $.
They all would know its either put up or shut up.
You can't get more $ like anywhere unless you prove your worth.
Yes Grazor, as I think, a % of top young players would be hanging to go this compared to what we currently have.

 

[grazorblade]

Originally the NST talk was that X Clubs viable would be Pro, they came up with the funds required to qualify so they can afford paying for all the needs.
Then due to numbers it was mentioned they would allow Clubs to get in as Semi Pro so as they could have 10/12 Clubs and go from there.
Have no clue how thats gonna work and improve but they must have had something that sounded viable to give it a go.

As for player salaries ahead, look a challenge but I think its not the be all that would jeopardise everything.
Snr and proven players already get their $$, up and comers etc sure wouldn't expect huge $'s and besides would be luving just to play and get some $.
They all would know its either put up or shut up.
You can't get more $ like anywhere unless you prove your worth.
Yes Grazor, as I think, a % of top young players would be hanging to go this compared to what we currently have.

I suppose one valid critique of the prep on the nst is we should have polled players to see how many would jump up to the nst even if there was no jump in salary. The threshold we need for the nst to be high enough quality is very low, as i said about a quarter saying yes, so im not worried, but it wouldve been nice to know

 

[southoftheyarra]

I suppose one valid critique of the prep on the nst is we should have polled players to see how many would jump up to the nst even if there was no jump in salary. The threshold we need for the nst to be high enough quality is very low, as i said about a quarter saying yes, so im not worried, but it wouldve been nice to know

I think we would be some what surprised, theres quite a bit of money behind npl clubs even if they aren't in the NST for now.

 

[grazorblade]

I think we would be some what surprised, theres quite a bit of money behind npl clubs even if they aren't in the NST for now.

If some nst clubs can pay more than some a league clubs the pressure on p and r will be enormous. That is impossible in the usa, but could happen here.

Very curious what happens....

 

[HappyGuus]

The clubs don't want to extend the season. There is no room for it in the calendar in Australia.

As late as February this year they still wanted to expand to 16 teams by 25-26. I suppose the season still won't need lengthening with that.

Do you mean there's no room in the overall sporting calendar?

 

[grazorblade]

As late as February this year they still wanted to expand to 16 teams by 25-26. I suppose the season still won't need lengthening with that.

Do you mean there's no room in the overall sporting calendar?

I suspect they might want to poach the best couple of nst clubs

 

[patjennings]

As late as February this year they still wanted to expand to 16 teams by 25-26. I suppose the season still won't need lengthening with that.

Do you mean there's no room in the overall sporting calendar?

Let's make a few heroic assumptions.

1) The ALM has 16 teams by 25-26.
2) The NST has 16 teams by 25-26
3) ALM clubs come into the Australia Cup at RD of 64
4) NST clubs came into the Australia Cup at RD of 128

Then the ALM clubs could have June off after a 31/5/2025 Grand Final
July and the beginning of August a League Cup played over 5 weeks
August and the beginning of September Australia Cup later rounds
13/9/2025 NPLM Grand Final
20/9/2025 Australia Cup final
27/9/2025 first ALM round

That would mean if an ALM club made the final of the League Cup, the Australia Cup and the ALM they would play 52 games over a 48 week period. The pre-season games will be competitive games rather than glorified training sessions. This is ignoring any AFC games.

For NST clubs they would have more competitive games with ALM teams than they already have and because of the timing will likely win a fair percentage of the games.

More competitive games against strong clubs will benefit both the ALM and NST clubs

 

[NicCarBel]

Let's make a few heroic assumptions.

1) The ALM has 16 teams by 25-26.
2) The NST has 16 teams by 25-26
3) ALM clubs come into the Australia Cup at RD of 64
4) NST clubs came into the Australia Cup at RD of 128

Then the ALM clubs could have June off after a 31/5/2025 Grand Final
July and the beginning of August a League Cup played over 5 weeks
August and the beginning of September Australia Cup later rounds
13/9/2025 NPLM Grand Final
20/9/2025 Australia Cup final
27/9/2025 first ALM round

That would mean if an ALM club made the final of the League Cup, the Australia Cup and the ALM they would play 52 games over a 48 week period. The pre-season games will be competitive games rather than glorified training sessions. This is ignoring any AFC games.

For NST clubs they would have more competitive games with ALM teams than they already have and because of the timing will likely win a fair percentage of the games.

More competitive games against strong clubs will benefit both the ALM and NST clubs

Not sure how that Australia Cup structure would work though. Would mean a national stage (when the NST clubs enter) with 80 clubs outside the ALM and NST (round of 128 would actually have to be a round of 112 in technicality). At the moment, the national stage sees 22 clubs from outside ALM.

Best bet would probably just be a straight up round of 64 with both ALM and NST entering at the same point - which would mean 32 clubs from outside ALM and NST. More feasible for FA to manage/fund travel for the lower clubs.